Tagged: Adam Wainwright
A Division Full of Aces: Who has the Best Rotation in the National League Central?
Let’s just pretend for one moment that the advent of the modern bullpen never happened. There’s no such thing as a LOOGY, Jerome Holtman never invented the save, and starting pitchers are handed the ball at the start of the game with the expectation that they will work a minimum of 7 innings. Now, I’m fairly sure the Player’s Association and a majority of the big league managers would riot if this kind of thing ever happened, but I know one place where everybody would be happy: the National League Central.
You see, apart from Pittsburgh, none of the NL Central teams have been able to cobble together a solid bullpen.The Cardinals struggles have been well-documented this year and for good reason. St. Louis currently has an ERA north of 6.00 out of the bullpen, which is good for dead last in baseball. Chicago, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee haven’t been much better ranking 20th, 18th, and 15th respectively in ERA.
But when a starting pitcher is on the mound? Look out, because each of these ball clubs has put together a quality rotation and most of them are running at full power right now. But which one of these star-studded starting staffs is the best?
Adam Wainwright, An Ace Once More
St. Louis Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright has always been one of the best big game pitchers in baseball. Even dating back to his days as a rookie out of the bullpen, Wainwright has never let a big moment get to him. Facing Carlos Beltran with the bases loaded, 2 outs, and a trip to the World Series on the line? That’s no big deal for Wainwright, just unleash the nastiest curveball you can possible throw. How about taking on a red-hot Giants lineup with your team staring down the possibility of a 3-1 hole? No big deal, just throw 7 dominant innings.
Wainwright’s always been a big game pitcher, which made his struggles in the NLDS against the Washington Nationals a season ago all the more puzzling. In 2 separate starts the Nationals were able to chase Wainwright from the game in the early going as they piled up 13 hits, 3 homers, and 7 total runs in just 8 innings against the Cards’ ace.
Well, on Tuesday evening Adam Wainwright went out and got his revenge. The right-hander thoroughly dominated the Nationals’ lineup, throwing 8.1 breezy innings, allowing 5 hits and 1 walk to go along with 9 strikeouts. He blew through the Nationals lineup with ease, using his fastball to get ahead of hitters before finishing them off with his trademark biting curveball.
Cardinals Should Reshuffle Their Bullpen
For all intents and purposes, the 2013 season has gotten off to a fine start for the St. Louis Cardinals. Their powerhouse offense is already outscoring the rest of the National League and their starting pitchers are coming off a run of epic proportions. Over the week against Milwaukee and Cincinnati, the Cardinals held their opponents scoreless for 39.1 innings straight, with 32 of those innings coming out of the rotation. Starter Adam Wainwright has been the best of all the birds, throwing 22 innings this year while striking out 24 batters and walking none in an otherworldly display of control.
But St. Louis does have one big issue and that’s shutting the door in the 9th inning. For the past couple of seasons the hard-throwing Jason Motte has taken the mound to turn out the lights for the Cardinals but it appears that he’s going to miss the entire 2013 season to have Tommy John surgery. That’s been bad news in the early going as nominal closer Mitchell Boggs has imploded just about every time his name is called, giving up 8 earned runs in just 6.1 innings of work. His latest detonation job came yesterday in Milwaukee as it took Boggs all of two batters before blowing the lead.
Cardinals Score a Big Victory with the Allen Craig Deal
Thanks to the excitement of the World Baseball Classic, I haven’t had a chance to get to a question that’s really got me thinking over the past week: is there a better general manager in the National League than John Mozeliak? I’m starting to lean toward no after Mozeliak pulled off yet another coup for the Cardinals, inking Allen Craig to a 5 year/$35 million dollar deal with a 6th year/$13 million option. There are some legitimate injury concerns with Craig, who’s spent part of the last 2 seasons on the DL, but there is also some legitimate hitting chops. Craig has been a rock solid producer over his first couple hundred games, hitting an even .300 with oodles of extra-base hits. And when you factor in the going rate for 1st baseman these days — at least 15 players will make more than $10 million a year to play 1st– this deal is a downright steal.
CC V. Hammel? Waino V. Gio? Can the Wild Cards Spring the Upsets?
After yesterday’s late-game heroics in Washington and New York, the first round of the 2012 playoffs has been deemed a rousing success. Thanks to Jason Werth, Manny Machado, and JJ Hardy we were guaranteed to have all four Divisional Series end with game 5’s. The first two game 5’s were full of excitement as well. In the National League, the Giants completed their comeback from 2-0 down thanks to some nifty bullpen work and a Buster Posey moonshot grand slam, while over in the AL, Justin Verlander struck out 11 A’s en route to a 6-0 win. Tonight we have another pair of fantastic looking pitching match-ups on our hands. In New York, the Orioles nominal ace Jason Hammel takes the mound against former Cy Young winner CC Sabathia in a series that’s featured surprisingly little offense thus far. In the nation’s capital, Cy Young candidate Gio Gonzalez looks to give Washington its first playoff series since the 1924 World Series. He faces Adam Wainwright, who was one of the top-3 pitchers in the National League in 2009 and 2010 before having Tommy John surgery a year-and-a-half ago. San Francisco and Detroit await in the League Championship Series. Let’s take a look at which aces are best suited to punch their team’s ticket to the next round.
Who Should the Braves, Cardinals Start in the Wild Card Round?
Barring a massive change in the playoff winds, the St. Louis Cardinals will be taking their repeat tour down to Atlanta to kick off the National League playoffs next Friday. Atlanta enters the final stretch week with a Wild Card spot already clinched, whereas St. Louis’ magic number is down to just 4 and their 3.5 game lead over Milwaukee and Los Angeles appears to be held with an iron grip. So, with the do-or-die game just over a week away, which pitchers should both franchises be looking at to make the pivotal, playoff-opening start?
Yu’s Big Night
Yu Darvish had the best start of his young career last night against the Yankees, tossing 8.1 beautiful innings, striking out 10 batters in a 2-0 win. Darvish threw everything plus the kitchen sink at the Yankee batters, keeping them off-balance and uncomfortable and the plate. Darvish stayed around the plate all night, walking a season low 2 batters and scattering 7 hits. Yu got his run support on a leadoff homer by Ian Kinsler and a 3rd inning 2-out RBI single by Josh Hamilton, and he was able to make both runs stand up.
His location was excellent and his wide array of pitches baffled the Yankee hitters. Darvish also isn’t afraid of using any pitch in any count, striking out hitters on his splitter, his curveball, his slider, and fastball. If you look at his pitch breakdown he threw 42 fastballs, 20 sliders, 7 curveballs, 27, cutters, 9 splitters, and 14 2-seamed fastballs. Even when Darvish was missing with his pitches, he was down and outside of the strike zone, where no hitter can do any damage. Yu throws each of these pitches in a variety of locations and at a variety of speeds. Last night he was moving his fastball velocity up-and-down between 90 mph and 97. His performance was impressive and generated a lot of awkward swings out of the hitters.
courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Yu was also intelligently exploiting the left side of the plate against the Yankees, because home plate umpire Ted Barrett was giving both pitchers a large corner on the left side of the plate. This is intelligent pitching and made the Yankee at-bats even tougher, because they had to protect more of the plate.
The splitter he was using last night was thrown slightly differently than any splitter I’ve seen previously. Darvish left his ring finger knuckle high up on the baseball and then split his middle and index fingers around the seams. The pitch was thrown in the mid-80s with sharp downward break that fooled the Yankee hitters. In the 2nd inning of his start he retires Nick Swisher with the pitch, and boy is it a nasty one.
Darvish also showed a solid ability to get out of a jam. In the top of the 3rd the Yankees were able to get a rally going, loading the bases with nobody out after a pair of singles surrounding a walk. Darvish then kicked things up a notch, striking out Curtis Granderson and inducing an easy double play ball on weak contact by Alex Rodriguez. The best pitchers are able to limit the damage an offense can do when it gets runners on, and Darvish displayed this ability in spades last night.
In fact, the only Yankee hitters who had any good swings against Darvish were Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano, who both doubled. Jeter is one of the 3 to 4 hottest hitters on the planet right now, with his average up to .416 after his 2-4 night, and Cano is-and-has been one of the best hitters in baseball for the past 3 seasons.
Darvish has now made 4 starts for the Rangers and has hardly disappointed. He has pitched 26 innings, compiling a 3-0 record while striking out 24 batters and posting a 2.42 ERA. He hasn’t allowed a homer and has gotten better in each of his starts, which is a scary thought for the league. His only issue has been his control walking 15 batters, 2nd most in baseball, but if his start against the Yankees is any indication, it won’t be an issue. If he can keep his early control problems in check, and display the command he had against New York, Darvish will be a solid contender to win the Cy Young.
Notes from Around the League:
-Chipper Jones turned 40 yesterday and celebrated with a bang, pounding a homer deep to right field in a 4-3 Atlanta win.
-Jeff Samardzija and Adam Wainwright met for the 2nd time this season and a pitcher’s duel ensued. Samardzija continued his excellent campaign, going 6.2 while striking out 9 and allowing no runs. Adam Wainwright also pitched well, going 6 innings, allowing 1 run and striking out 7. This was his best start of the season so far, and should be an encouraging sign for the Cardinals. As for the outcome of the game, Chicago was able to win in extras 3-2 on what should have been an error awarded to Tyler Greene, but was instead ruled a single for Alfonso Soriano.
-Tommy Milone also continued his excellent start to the season out in Oakland, throwing 8 innings of excellent baseball in a 2-0 win. He moves his record to 3-1 on the season after allowing only 3 hits while striking out 5 White Sox. His ERA on the season is now an even 2.00 and he is posting an elite 0.852 WHIP. He doesn’t strike out many hitters, but Milone does a good job keeping batters off balance at the plate while still pounding the strike zone.
-Josh Collmenter was bombed once again out in Arizona, this time by the struggling Phillies offense in a 8-5 loss. Collmenter has now allowed 20 earned runs and 30 base runners in 18.1 innings of work. He is a soft-tossing righty, who’s velocity usually sits around 86-88 with an average curveball and change-up, and now in his 2nd season, Collmenter’s stuff just doesn’t seem to be fooling batters anymore. He’s already leading baseball in homers allowed as well, having given up 6, and Arizona has plenty of talent in the minor leagues, with Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs destroying minor league batters, so its going to be interesting to see if the Diamondbacks make a rotation move sooner rather than later. Arizona would probably be able to add a couple wins to their overall total if they call up one of the young flamethrowers in the next few weeks, rather than let Collmenter’s soft tossing act continue to bomb for a couple more months.
Opening Day in St. Louis
Well it was wet, cold, stormy, and a whole lot of fun. I rode the train down to the stadium, which is a great way to get to the ballpark, with plenty of Cardinals fans around 10 AM in the morning, I looked at all the statues of the Cardinal greats, Stan Musial, Dizzy Dean, Enos Slaughter, Ozzie Smith, the Rajah and many more.
We walked around the stadium and stopped in a bar right outside for a bit. And then the rain started, and kept going and going and going. Patrick and I decided to have a few beers, try to warm up a little, and go into the stadium to get more cover, because the tent we were under was becoming too crowded. And the rain continued.
We got into the stadium, and decided to go down to the field. Nothing truly looks better than a major league field, prepared for Opening Day. It was beautiful, with its trim, elegantly cut grass and its well-manicured dirt; entirely free of rocks to ensure every hop is comfortable for the infielder. The lines foul lines freshly painted, surrounded by seats waiting to be filled, the St. Louis Arch in the background. But it was raining, and the scoreboard was flashing a delay message, informing us of at least a 1-hour delay in the festivities. And the rain continued.
After the 4th hour of standing in the rain, we made a smart decision. We would head back to Patrick’s house (a 10 minute drive), dry our rain-soaked clothes off get back quickly before the ceremony started. We executed our plan to perfection; drying off, ourselves and our clothes, warming up, and making it back just in time to catch the festivities. I grabbed a delicious bratwurst, headed to my seat, and took in my first Opening Day experience. And boy, was it a treat.
The players were given a miniature parade around the stadium, with each player driven around in a truck, and dropped off at home plate for his introduction. Fans robustly cheered all, saving the biggest for hometown hero David Freese and popular pitcher Adam Wainwright. After introductions, members of the last 4 Cardinals World Series teams came out and threw the first pitch. It was a great collection of Cardinals’ history, with Tony La Russa representing last year’s team, David Eckstein representing 2006, Bruce Sutter for 1982, and Bob Gibson for 1967. Finally, at around 4 pm the game would begin.
The game itself was mostly a one-sided affair. Adam Wainwright struggled with his control, and was tagged for 8 runs. He gave up a grand slam to Bryan LaHair, the new Cubs 1st baseman. Jeff Samardzija was in control for most of his start, except for the 5th innings. The Cardinals treated the hometown crowd in the 5th, scoring 5 runs, which would be their final tally. The rain continued slowly, off-and-on, for the latter innings. We were able to move seats, and get real close to the action for the last couple of innings. The Cubs bullpen was impressive, and the Cardinals didn’t muster so much as a scoring chance following the 5th. The final score was 9-5, and we were cold, and a little wet again. But most importantly, baseball is finally back in St. Louis, which was good enough for us.
Division Previews: National League Central
This is a tale of two divisions. The top half, St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati all have legitimate playoff aspirations as well as good offenses. The other 3 teams, Chicago, Houston, and Pittsburgh will all struggle to reach even .500. This may be the most balanced divisional fight in baseball, because the top-3 teams appear, at least on paper, to be evenly matched. Let’s take a look:
Milwaukee Brewers
The 2011 Milwakee team was a very balanced one, finishing 8th in baseball in runs allowed and 11th in runs scored. The Brewers were 6 games better than their Pythagorean record indicated as well, so some regression to the mean could occur in 2012. The Brewers will also be without Prince Fielder in the upcoming season, but they will be getting a full year from Zach Greinke. The 2012 Brewers will once again possess a strong pitching staff, maybe in the top-3 in the league, but the big question will be on offense.
The 2012 team will probably not score as many runs do to the absence of Prince Fielder so it will be interesting to see if the pitching can pick up the slack. Fielder was an OPS machine, .981, and provided plenty of ribbies as well, tallying 120. Mat Gamel is the first in line to fill Fielder’s rather larger shoes, but the drop-off in production could be rather steep. Granted, Gamel has only received sporadic playing time in the majors over the past 4 season, he has only hit .222/.309/.374 in just under 200 at-bats. That would rank as one of the lowest marks for a 1st baseman so Gamel will have to improve or Milwaukee would be wise to look elsewhere.
The lineup will probably see some increased offensive production in at a couple of positions however. Freshly signed Aramis Ramirez will be replacing the Casey McGehee, who was abysmal in 2011. McGehee received 600 plate appearances and posted an abysmal .223/.280/.346. Ramirez on the other hand, was a Silver Slugger winner, who posted an OPS .200 points higher.
Milwaukee also dodged a bullet when they Ryan Braun’s 50 game suspension was revoked. Losing the 2011 NL MVP for nearly a third of the season would have been crippling to the Brewers playoff chances. The rest of the outfield is made up of speedster Nyjer Morgan and power player Corey Hart, who hit 26 dingers a year ago.
The Brewers have also added Alex Gonzalez, who’s bat is about equal to the man he is replacing in Yuniesky Betancourt, but who‘s glove should provide more value.. The Brewers should see a large upgrade on the defensive; improving at 3rd and 1st This could help their pitching staff, which is fronted by two Cy Young candidates.
The staff will be the real strength of the team, and could finish as one the 3-4 best in baseball by season’s end. Zach Greinke will probably throw somewhere between 30-45 more innings. Greinke dominated hitters in following the All-Star game, posting a 2.59 ERA. He also led the league in strikeout rate, throwing an absurd 10.5 per 9. Possessing an above average fastball and a devastating curve, Greinke has the makeup to win another Cy Young award.
His teammate Yovi Gallardo had his first top 10 finish in the Cy Young last season posting an impressive 17-10 record with a 3.52 era and an elite k/9 rate of 9.0, placing him 6th in the National League. Gallardo’s makeup has always impressed scouts and at 25 he should be entering the prime of his career. Gallardo and Greinke should be able to win quite a few games. The rest of the rotation is returning from 2011 as well. Randy Wolf, Shaun Marcum and, Chris Narveson all have the ability to be quality mid-rotation starters. Marcum in particular, uses an excellent change-up to fool hitters and is a solid 3rd starter on a playoff contender.
The Brewers bullpen should be deep again in 2012. The end game duo of John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez is about as reliable as they come in today’s game. Each posted an elite ERA+, both topping 200, while striking out more than a batter per inning.
While many early forecasts have projected the Brewers to be in the mix, very few people believe the team will be as strong without Fielder’s bat. The Braun-Fielder partnership was the engine behind the Brewers offense a year ago, and unless the team’s pitching takes another step up, other batters will have to step up in order to put Milwaukee in the playoffs.
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis had a banner year in 2011, racing all the way back to pass Atlanta for the wild card before vanquishing all foes in the playoffs. The Cardinals will be missing a few key members from that team going into 2012, but also welcome in fresh talent. Albert Pujols, Tony La Russa, and Dave Duncan will be difficult to replace in the hearts of Cardinals fans. With the hiring of Mike Matheny, the welcoming back of Adam Wainwright, and the signing of Carlos Beltran the Cardinals will be an interesting study in 2012.
Managing icon Tony La Russa left the Cardinals in style a year ago and Dave Duncan appears to have left the team for the duration of the season as well. If will be interesting to see if Matheny can generate more wins out of this roster, or if La Russa was truly maximizing his talent level. The old skipper loved to play the bullpen matchups and was constantly tinkering with his lineup. Matheny may opt to maneuver a little less, and may give players more defined roles. The 2012 Cardinals will be an interesting study in the replacement of a manager, particularly one with no major league experience.
The key story in St. Louis however is the loss of Albert Pujols, and the issue of replacing his production. Lance Berkman will slide over to 1st, which will improve the Cardinals’ defense for obvious reasons. Berkman was a star with the bat in 2011, hitting for an elite .959 OPS but he was a sore sight in the outfield. His replacements in the outfield will be former centerfielder Carlos Beltran.
Beltran still has a fair amount of skills in his repertoire, playing above average defense, while possessing a good batting eye, and solid power. The days of 40+ steals are gone however, as Beltran has only stolen 7 bases the past 2 seasons combined. Beltran, who had a similarly elite .920 OPS splitting time between the Giants and Mets last year. Most importantly for Beltran was the fact that he played 142 games and finished 2 at bats shy of 600, the first time he had gotten above 500 since 2008.
If Beltran stays healthy and Allen Craig recovers from his knee by May, the Cardinals could produce close to the same number of runs as 2011, which led the National League. It should also be interesting over the course of the season to see how the Cardinal offense produces without Albert Pujols in the middle of the lineup. Much like Milwaukee, the pitching staff will determine how far the Cardinals go.
Adam Wainwright, owner of the most devastating curve in baseball, is returning after an elbow injury cost him all of 2011. The Cardinal pitching staff ranked in the middle of the NL a year ago and didn’t even get to throw Adam Wainwright for even 1 inning.
Ideally Wainwright will throw about 200 in 2012, and if his prior performance holds, those will be Cy Young caliber innings replacing the 180 innings split between Edwin Jackson, now in Washington, and Kyle McClellan. Wainwright who has an ERA+ of at least 155 the last two seasons he was healthy will replace what McClellan and Jackson combined to make into a league average pitcher who went 11-8 with their opponent’s OPS sitting in the mid .700’s. Wainwright, combined with a full year of the revamped bullpen should make the Cardinals solid contenders going into 2012.
Chris Carpenter is already is having injury problems, which is of little surprise because of his 2011 workload. Carpenter led baseball in innings pitched a year ago, pitching a combined 263.1 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He has never thrown for more than 200 innings 3 consecutive seasons in his career and is now 36 years old. If he can give the Cardinals 120 good innings, they may consider themselves lucky.
The rest of the rotation composed of the sneaky good Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook, and as of now, Lance Lynn. Garcia has a deceptive curveball, and has posted a career ERA of 3.27 in 374 career innings. The bullpen will benefit from a full year of Jason Motte, Mark Rzepczyski, and others rather than Ryan Franklin and Miguel Bautista.
This team has a lot of interesting pieces and will more than likely be a contender in the deep National League. The effect Albert Pujols, Tony La Russa, and Dave Duncan had on the Cardinals over the past decade has been large and led to 2 World Series titles. A new regime may bring in some fresh ideas, renewed vigor, and the Cardinals could perform exceptionally well maybe winning 95 games. Or Albert will be missed, Carpenter as well as other veterans can’t stay healthy, Matheny is in over his head, and Dave Duncan really was working magic. It will be interesting no matter what happens for the defending champs in 2012.
Cincinnati Reds
After winning the NL Central in 2010 expectations for Cincinnati were sky-high going into 2011, but the Reds failed to deliver. The Reds finished a mediocre 79-83, and that was mostly due to a pitching staff that was 20th in baseball. The offense was strong again in 2011 finishing 2nd in the NL in runs, led by Joey Votto. The Reds will need some improvement on the pitching staff in order to compete, and that is why they traded for Padres ace Mat Latos in the offseason.
Latos will join Jonny Cueto, who just missed winning the ERA title in the NL a year ago due to a lack of innings pitched, at the top of the Reds rotation. Latos and Cueto both strikeout an above average number of batters, and could form one of the best 1-2 combos in baseball in 2012.
Latos dropped off some in 2011 from his stellar 2010 campaign but he’s only 24 and possesses a mid-90s fastball, a power slider, a solid changeup, and an average, seldom used curveball. If he could develop his curve a little further, Latos would probably be a Cy Young contender for years to come. As he currently stands he is a pitcher with All-Star potential and a top 10 Cy Young finish on his resume.
The rest of the rotation appears as if it will be composed of Mike Leake, and some combination of Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, and Jeff Francis. Leake, Bailey and Chapman are all young pitchers, and Cincinnati would be wise to put each in the starting rotation to gain experience. Leake has shown the ability to be a solid mid-rotation starter and Bailey has never quite lived up to his first round promise, but possesses a couple of quality pitches.
Aroldis Chapman has the most potential and is a flame throwing Cuban who needs to be starting games. It’s a waste of his talent to only pitch him 40-60 innings in the bullpen when he is nearly unhittable, allowing a .147 opponent’s batting average. He does some control issues, as evidenced by his 41 walks in 50 innings a year ago. This problem can only be corrected by experience, which Chapman sorely needs.
Cincinnati’s bullpen is still up in the air after the season-ending injury to Ryan Madsen, the teams projected closer. This unit may struggle and could be the Reds’ Achilles heel all year. The offense on the other hand should be just fine.
The Reds enter 2011 with what appears to be the best offense in the National League. They were 2nd in runs scored a year ago, and the Cardinals losing Albert Pujols, Cincinnati could lead the league in scoring. The lineup is deep, and could have as many as 5 above average hitters in 2012.
Joey Votto is the best of all of them, as evidenced by his .309/.416/.531 split 2011. If he can reprise his 2010 form, which saw him win the MVP, Cincinnati will add a few runs to their total. Votto drives the ball to all parts of the field, with excellent power (he hit 29 homers and 40 doubles a year ago). Expect more of the same this year.
Another excellent hitter is Brandon Phillips, who has excellent pop for a 2nd baseman, plays good defense, and gets on-base at a solid clip. Phillips is a poor base runner as are most of the Reds, so Cincinnati will again look to get runs on and slug them home.
The young outfield of Drew, Stubbs, Jay Bruce, and Chase Heisley should be productive as well. Each player is under 28 and they all should be entering their primes. Bruce is the best of the 3, with excellent power to go along with an innate ability to draw a walk.
The Reds will need the offense to lead the National League in runs if Cincy wants to play deep into October. The pitching staff has only a couple above average arms, and the bullpen is rather shallow. A midseason trade could mitigate these issues, and the Reds could be active players on the market come midseason.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates enter 2012 with a slight bit of optimism after finishing 4th in the Central in 2012. Over the past 19 seasons the Pittsburgh Pirates have been the worst professional franchise in North American sports history, with a losing record in every one. Last season Pittsburgh was precariously in first on July 19th only to have the wheels fall off finishing the year 24-43 with a .358 win %.
The team was a paper tiger a during that midseason run to the top of the NL Central, and their second half slump was more indicative of their true talent level. The Pirates scored only 610 runs, good for 4th worst in baseball and their hitters averaged an OPS+ of 87, 10 points below the league’s equilibrium of 97. And that woeful production included McCutchen’s stellar 127 OPS+, 23 steals, and 23 homers. McCutchen did slump massively in the second half last year hitting .216/.330/.392 after an All-Star caliber start to the year.
The rest of the offense is a mix between league average talents, and young players coming off of disappointing seasons. Jose Tabata had a rough sophomore year, playing only 98 games, showing very little pop, while walking at a below average rate. He’s still only 23 so there is some time for improvement, but some improvement from the young outfielder needs to be seen. 2nd baseman Neil Walker is another talented youngster, but he has a bit of a strikeout problem, which limits his productivity. This lineup will have to grow-up if it wants to produce enough runs to finish near .500.
Pittsburgh’s pitching was slightly below league average last season, thanks to a stellar bullpen, but offense appears to be the more pressing issue. Gerrit Cole was last years #1 overall pick and projects as a very high upside top of the rotation starter according to most talent evaluators. John Sickles believes the team has the 12th best minor league system and Baseball America’s list has 6 of the Pirates 10 best prospects as pitchers.
AJ Burnett, who moves from a bandbox in the most brutal division in baseball into the cozier confines of PNC Park and the gentler NL Central, should have a solid 2 years in Pittsburgh. The rest of the pitching staff is a mishmash of retreads, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, Eric Bedard, etc., etc. Ideally the rest of the rotation is further bolstered into one of a competitor from within. Gerrit Cole, Jameson Tallion, and other highly touted prospects will have to make an impact to finally get a winning season.
It will probably be another long season in Pittsburgh in 2012. The team doesn’t appear to have the offense to compete with St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee. If the Pirates’ pitching regresses in any way things could be downright ugly. A lot will have to break right for Pittsburgh to compete including the reclamation pitchers panning out, Karstens having another year where he outperforms his talent, McCutchen putting up an MVP season, and the young players all stepping up and playing well.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs had a notable offseason by hiring Theo Epstein away from the Red Sox and pledging to rebuild. Jim Hendry is no longer around to recklessly overspend on players like Carlos Zambrano, who’s also gone, and Alfonso Soriano, who still has 3 seasons at $18 million on his deal, so the Cubs should be better off. But the 2012 will be a rough one for the Cubbies, who are looking at a 90+ loss year. There are only a few truly talented players on the roster, and the team doesn’t appear much different from the one that finished 18th in runs scored and in the bottom-10 in runs allowed.
Starlin Castro is now the star of the organization, and appears to be headed toward a fine career. Castro was an All-Star in 2011, leading the NL in hits while posting a .307/.341/.432 line. He has the speed to steal 20+ bases and could eventually hit 20+ home runs in a season. He comes with a couple of drawbacks, as he doesn’t draw many walks and plays erratically in the field, ranking as one of the worst shortstops defensively. It’s important to keep in mind that he just turned 22, so there is plenty of room for improvement. Expect quite a few more All-Star appearances for the shortstop in the future.
Most of the projected 2012 lineup probably won’t be a part of the next winning Cubs team, and no one in particular stands out. Anthony Rizzo, who the Cubs acquired in the offseason, is the future 1st baseman, but will start the year in Triple-A to get more seasoning. He could be a solid power bat in the future with an above average ability to draw a walk. Players like Rizzo are tough to acquire and the Cubs did a good job of nabbing him.
The Cubs enter 2012 with a bland pitching staff as well. Jeff Samardzija made the most of his opportunity to win a rotation spot and could provide a boost to the rotation. He had a 2.97 ERA last year in 88 innings while striking out 87 batters. Granted all this production was out of the bullpen, but the talent level to be a quality starter is there for Samardzija.
Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster will be atop Samardzija in the rotation, and both are quality starting pitchers as well. The Cubs may look to trade one or both of these players during the season, and Garza in particular could bring in quite a haul. Garza has been league average or better the last 5 seasons straight and is a reliable strikeout pitcher with a career ERA of 3.83. He’s just entering his prime at age 28 and could bring back a couple of prospects with high ceilings.
Theo Epstein has already moved the Cubs into rebuilding mode. They will probably further that process this season and the results could be grim. A .500 season is a long shot, so expect the losses to pile up on the North Side of Chicago.
Houston Astros
Man oh man is this team broken. The major league roster is wrecked, particularly on offense and there doesn’t appear to be reinforcements coming. 2012 will be a struggle for Houston, and the best outcome for their season is that the few remaining veterans play well enough to bring back something useful in a trade. The Astros had the 3rd worst pitching staff in baseball and the 5th worst offense in 2011, the marks of a truly terrible team. The outlook for 2012 appears to be just as grim.
The pitching staff could be slightly better if Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, and Bud Norris improve, but none of the 3 is frightening. Each player could be traded by the All-Star break and the best-case scenario for Houston is that all 3 pitch well enough to draw interest.
The most talented player in the lineup is probably Carlos Lee. Lee had a bounce back year in 2011 hitting for a 117 OPS+, which was 2nd on the team after Hunter Pence, who was traded mid-season. The only other Astro who was remotely productive a year ago was Michael Bourne, who was shipped out to Atlanta. These were smart moves by the Astros front office, because they need to replenish their farm system in order to compete. Houston’s system ranks in the bottom half of baseball still, but has improved on its dead last ranking in 2011
This team needs to continue trading away any and all talent because things won’t be getting any easier in the near future either. Houston is slated to jump to the American League West in 2013, putting them in direct competition with the high-spending Rangers and Angels, which is no easy task. The rebuilding process for the franchise will probably take years, and the next competitive.
Predictions
*Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
NL Central MVP: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
NL Central Cy Young: Zach Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers
The top-3 teams in the division probably won’t be separated by more than 4 games. I think this division will be a dog fight, with around 88-90 wins taking the crown. The National League is so balanced this season that all 3 of these teams will compete for the Wild Card as well. I think that Cincinnati will score the most runs in the NL and that will be enough to get past Milwaukee, which will pitch well but won’t score enough, and St Louis, where Albert’s lineup presence will be missed. The bottom 3 in the division should all look to trade any veterans they have in order to further build for 2013 and beyond.
Tony La Russa Comes to Kirksville
Tony La Russa came to Truman State University on Friday, March 16, 2012 and he discussed various topics relating to his baseball career for an hour and a half. The manager was candid, humorous, and at the end of his speech he took questions for about 45 minutes. During the show La Russa showed off his jewelry. He showed the audience his World Series rings from 1989 and 2006 and discussed what the new ring for last years title would look like. Here is some of what he discussed. (Some quotes have been paraphrased in the interest of brevity.)
On the media:
“Never lie, never tell em what they want to here either.”
On how his staff motivates and success:
“We ask each player to buy in to what we emphasize, and we emphasize personalization.”
“One thing our staff did was to create a special environment, put the players in a position to win”
“Being successful is competing.”
“We (the Cardinals) came back because we had established a personalized approach. The way to separate yourself is to find edges. You don’t have down days and you tough out adversity. No matter what the guts were always there, the players bought in to the personalized approach. We establish respect, trust, and caring. Each guy had to earn the respect of each guy. How do you do that? You have talent and bring it everyday.”
La Russa discussed the personalized approach for a while and how it related to Colby Rasmus.
On Colby Rasmus
“Colby is a really talented guy but he’s baby young. Everyone on our staff, and I mean everyone, from the coaches to the players tried (to get him involved with the team).He’s really talented and one day it will click. Our staff pressure’s you and we teach you to pressure your teammates.”
La Russa discussed Colby again later in the Q/A and here is most of what he said:
“Back when we were 6 games over and tied for first, the GM and owner ask our staff, what we need. To fill our needs Colby was going to be the guy. For the most part we trust the guys on our teams and we had to convince the owner trade was right. Ownership’s concern was that we (Cardinal’s staff) hadn’t done enough to get Colby up to speed. Everyone tried.”
“His (Rasmus) biggest problem was doing things like not being ready to play. We felt we did our best but we could win it if we made the trade. He (Rasmus) has the talent, he’s cool under pressure, a has courage at the plate. His mind isn’t relentless and that is his issue. If it ever clicks he could have a great career.”
Interesting thoughts from La Russa. He hinted a couple times at some issues with Rasmus’ family, but went into no details. He also mentioned the words kid and baby multiple times when referring to Rasmus or his attitude. La Russa said there was only a “4-5 players I didn’t enjoy managing” and this makes you wonder if Colby was one of them. Based on what La Russa was saying he isn’t sure if it will ever click for Rasmus and was one of the biggest supporters of the midseason trade.
On Ricky Henderson
“Ricky is the greatest leadoff hitter of all-time. The media liked to beat him up. When we (Oakland) traded for him the press put up a headline before he had even played saying ‘A’s Chemistry Takes a Beating.’ I didn’t like that.”
On Dennis Eckersley:
“Eck is a really cool guy. He’s got his own language, though, and that made him tough for me to understand. Here’s an example. Once when he was pitching poorly in a midseason game I went out to talk to him. I gave him the same old same old, you know, how’s the arm feeling? What’s going on with your location, yada, yada…and he says ‘Man I’m just salad.’ Well I had never heard that in my entire life so I just left him out there and returned to the dugout. After a couple more hits I go out there for the second time to pull him from the game and when I get there he says ‘Why’d you leave me in, I told you I was salad.’ At this point I told him I have no idea what he was talking about and he says ‘I’m salad, I’m just tossing it up there.’”
On the bullpen phone issue in the 2011 World Series:
“It was the most embarrassing walk of my career. Half the crowd was laughing and the other half just booing. We lost a pivotal game because of me.”
On Dirk Nowitzki about pressure before Game 3 of the World Series:
“This was one of the funniest and best things I ever heard anyone say, I’ll remember it until the day I die. People were giving him a hard time about throwing out the first pitch and telling him not to blow it and he said ‘I make love to pressure my man, that’s who I am.”
On Moneyball:
“Moneyball…I hate it. It’s cost big league scouts their jobs. Numbers are only a small part of what you do. It’s a bad concept. Moneyball, they produce information, they tell you they can find a better way to do something. It’s bullshit. The only numbers I ever look at are the matchups. If this guy is 3-20 against a pitcher and that guy is 10-20 I’m gonna play the guy who is 10 for 20. I don’t look at anything else. We’re getting back to balance, between scouts and numbers guys, because enough teams have gotten burnt. Look at the A’s when is the last time they won anything. I don’t like it and I don’t trust it.”
On Albert Pujols:
“Albert is one of my favorite players. Phenomenal talent. I don’t think the Cardinals should have signed him. I think they’re smart. It doesn’t make sense for the Cardinals. You should all still be Albert Pujols fans however. He went back to the team during the offseason and said he would sign the deal they gave him before Spring Training. The team countered with a 5 year deal. When LA gave him $60 million more than any other offer on the table it was tough for him. You should all still be Albert fans because he is a great talent and a great guy. The only time you should root against Al is if you are playing the LA Angels in the World Series.”
On Gamesmanship:
“I have never used gamesmanship ever. I did it (referring to the flickering lights in Milwaukee last year) because I trust our players. The Milwaukee lights were flickering and my players were telling me they were. If someone is handing out bs I will respond with some type of bullshit of my own.” “I care about what our team feels like, I have their backs and I trust ‘em.”
On Kenny Roger’s pine tar hand in the 2006 World Series:
“He had pine tar all over his hand, no doubt about it. I could have gone out there, had the umps undress him, and they would’ve found it and ejected him. I didn’t do it because at that time of year (October) every pitcher had a little something to help grip. The hitters like it that way too, because the ball isn’t going everywhere. I learned a lot from Sparky Anderson (Hall of Fame manager and La Russa’s mentor) who said ‘win the right way, and lose the right way. Don’t give no bullshit or take any either.’ I decided not to have Rogers kicked out because of this (advice). I did ask the umpires for the substance to be removed. I didn’t think that was a way to compete and I decided on the philosophy that I was taught.”
On the rivalry with the Cubs:
“I would hate Cincinnati more than Chicago. However the best competition in our division was Houston with Bagwell, Biggio, and Berkman. Those were some good teams.
On Adam Wainwright:
“We were surprised the Braves were talking about him. Our scouts had seen him and really thought he had the total package. The reason he was available was that he wasn’t aggressive enough, you know? Pitching away from contact. He’s a beauty. Now you gotta keep going after hitters. He wasn’t ready because he didn’t challenge them. He is a complete package. He had potential and realized it.”
On his best team:
“The Oakland team (1989) that won was so good, you just had to push a button. They were that good and that kind of team.”
On the 2011 Cardinals:
“I woulda managed that club for free.”
TheCutoffMan 