Tagged: NL East

Can the Beat up Nationals Survive?

The National League East has been a bloodbath so far this season, with surprises left and right from the still-competative Mets to the currently-in-last Phillies, but no one has caught the attention of Major League Baseball like the Washington Nationals. We’ve previously discussed how the Nationals are having success, by relying on a hard-throwing, talented, strikeout-oriented pitching staff, which has propelled them to a 22-14 record. The Nationals have allowed the fewest runs in baseball, a testament to the talent of guys like Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez. But their are some rather large underlying issues in play here, particularly the startling lack of offense because of a rash of injuries that has wiped out nearly every productive bat. 

The Nationals’ offense, which had been ranking around the middle of the league for a good part of the young season, has fallen of the wagon, ranking 27th in scoring. Injuries have robbed Washington of some of its best and most powerful hitters. The issues at catcher are among the most pressing of any team in the league. Wilson Ramos, the Nationals talented young catcher, is out for the season after he tore his ACL. His backup, Sandy Leone, also was hurt a couple of nights ago and had to be put on the DL. The Nats are now stuck with Carlos Maldonado, a 33-year-old career minor leaguer, who has hit .185 in 60 plate appearances spanning the 2010, 2007, and 2006 season, or Jesus Flores. Flores is a 27-year-old career .251 hitter who has received some backup innings for the Nationals over the past few seasons, and he will now get the lions share of the playing time.  This platoon of the two could probably suffice as a stopgap, but as a long-term solution they would probably be combine to be the worst catcher in the league, and a complete black hole on offense. No team is without a blemish, but this is a rather unsightly one.

In the outfield the problems are nearly as catastrophic. Michael Morse, a powerful 30-homerun hitter a year ago, has yet to play a game, and probably won’t be back until mid-June. Jayson Werth broke his wrist in brutal fashion and won’t see action for a couple of months. That leaves the Nationals with a starting outfield of Rick Ankiel, Roger Bernadina, and Bryce Harper, with Xavier Nady as the 4th outfielder. All three of the starters are about league average as players, with each having an OPS+ between 90-101. The bigger issue is that none of the outfielders are hitting above .260, and none are getting on-base at an acceptable rate either because they all have OBPs below the league average of .318. Harper has shown some good pop and excellent base running skills, but he is very unrefined, has little command of the strike zone, and struggles to get on-base. All of this is expected from a 19-year-old. Defensively they are mediocre at chasing fly balls down, but Ankiel and Harper each have plus arms, which helps prevent base runners from taking bases at will. The sooner Morse gets back, the better, because the Nationals outfield will be making a lot of outs over the next month.

In the infield, star 3rd base man Ryan Zimmerman has also dealt with some injury problems, costing him 12 games already, and hurting his performance. The normally potent Zimmerman is only hitting .230/.346/.332 with only 1 homer in 100 plate appearances. If he can get back to his normal .287 with 20+ homers, while playing Gold Glove defense it would go along way to curing some of the Nationals’ ills. If they can get 2nd baseman Danny Espinosa (only hitting .211) going as well, the Nationals could probably scratch out enough runs with their pitching staff to remain in the playoff chase. If Zimmerman can’t turn it on and the hot hitting combo of Ian Desmond and Adam LaRoche cool off, the Nationals are in trouble. Their depth has been tested over the past week and it will continue to be tested over the next month. How the Nationals’ backups respond will go a long way to determining the fate of season for this franchise.

Thoughts on Strasburg, and Around the League

Stephen Strasburg claimed his first win of the year yesterday, a 4-0 victory over Johan Santana and the Mets. It was notable for him personally because for the 1st time in his young career the righty was allowed to exceed 100 pitches, throwing 108 with 63 going for strikes. Strasburg was superb over those 108 pitches, allowing only 2 hits and 3 walks while striking out 9 in 6 innings. The Nationals have won both of his starts so far, and the young right-hander has looked every bit like an ace.

Strasburg has compiled 13 innings, allowing 7 hits, 4 walks, and 1 earned run, while striking out 14. If he continues to dominate, Washington will pick up a lot of wins and stay competitive in what is shaping up to be a brutal division. Strasburg hasn’t fully hit his stride yet either. His location has been a bit spotty in both of his starts, and as he finds his rhythm as the season continues, the big ace should only get better. As you can see in this chart below, (provided from BrooksBaseball.net) Strasburg was a little erratic with his location against the Mets, and even so, he still only allowed 1 run. He’s going to dominate once he locates a bit better, so expect at least 3 games where he strikes out more than 10 batters.

The only problem is that the Nationals have already announced an innings limit on the ace, as they plan to end his season after 160 innings. Strasburg is now 19 months removed from Tommy John surgery and is still just 23-years-old, so Washington’s conservative plan isn’t a terrible one, but it may need to be altered.

Washington could consider skipping Strasburg in the rotation a couple of times over the next 2 months, thus reducing his work load going forward and keeping him available later in the season. This course of action could have some unintended consequences, such as getting away from a steady throwing routine as well as knocking Strasburg out of rhythm. Many pitchers like to take the ball every 5 days, while having 1 or 2 throw days in between, and some tend to struggle if given extended rest. Both Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia are on record with their disdain for extra rest, preferring to throw every 5 days.Another possible plan, if the Nationals are competitive down the stretch, would be to reevaluate the innings limit and up it by 20 or 30.

National’s GM Mike Rizzo has already said that neither of these would be an option “There’s not going to be a whole lot of tinkering going on. We’re going to run him out there until his innings are done … He’s a young pitcher that’s still learning how to pitch in the big leagues. I think it’s unfair to get him ramped up in spring training and start the season on a regular rotation and then shut him down or skip him. We’re just going to make him comfortable.” This could come back to hunt the Nationals, who appear to be a franchise who could contend for a playoff spot this season. It will also be interesting to see if Rizzo sticks to his word, if say, Washington is up 4 games in the NL East with a month to go when Strasburg, in the midst of a phenomenal season at that point, hits the innings limit wall. This story line will be an interesting one to watch play out.

Other thoughts:

-Tim Lincecum has been roughed up so far during the 2012 season, throwing only 7 innings while being rocked for 11 runs. The Freak had his worst start of his career last night in Colorado, lasting only 2.1, giving up 6 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks, striking out 3. He announced before the season that he was scrapping his slider, which has held true, as he has not thrown a single one. Throughout the course of his career he has thrown the pitch about 11% of the time (courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net). Lincecum claims that he doesn’t want to use it because it damages his arm, which is more than reasonable, but it may hurt his chances of success. He has been compensating by throwing his change-up and absurd 33% of the time. Timmy has always had one of the best change-ups in baseball, but the pitch loses its effectiveness if thrown more than its usual 19% of the time. Lincecum’s velocity has also been a bit down, which is normal for most pitchers in April, and his location has also been poor. If his velocity bumps up a mile or two per hour, and his normally stellar location return, everything will be all right in San Francisco.

-Amazing comeback by the Rays yesterday to get to Justin Verlander in the 9th inning, after being dominated by him all game long. Verlander is now 0-1, despite pitching 8+ innings in both of his starts, and is not having as good of fortune in the win column as he did in 2011. There is no quit in Tampa Bay, which is a feather in the cap to their manager Joe Maddon, for always getting his players to believe.

-Equilibrium has returned somewhat in the AL East, after the Yankees completed their sweep over the Orioles with a 6-4 extra innings win last night. Nick Swisher hit the game-winning 2-run homer in the 10th to give both teams identical 3-3 records. Elsewhere in the East, Toronto took the series from Boston, leaving the Red Sox at a miserable 1-5 to start the season. The Red Sox have played a tough schedule so far, and its not getting any easier any time soon. Boston’s next 3 series, all at Fenway: 4 against Tampa, 2 against Texas, and 3 against New York.

-Finally, Cincinnati managed to avoid the sweep to the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals, winning 4-3 behind Joey Votto’s 4-hit day. I will be in St. Louis this weekend to catch the Cardinals home opener against the Cubs with a most excellent friend, Patrick, and will have a post about it over the weekend.