The 2012 season has played out like a magic carpet ride for the Cincinnati Reds this year. They became the first team in baseball to reach the 80-win plateau yesterday after walloping the Arizona Diamondbacks for a 3-game sweep and are currently firing on all cylinders. The starting rotation is putting up one good start after another, the offense is solidly above average in the run scoring department, and the bullpen has been damn near untouchable, pitching their way to the lowest ERA in baseball as a unit. Even Joey Votto’s absence for most of the 2nd half of the season hasn’t been able to slow this team down. A couple weeks ago we talked about the primary reasons behind Cincinnati’s success, from their weak schedule to Johnny Cueto posting Cy Young-caliber numbers, and today I want to focus on just one of the those reasons: Aroldis Chapman, a man who’s in the midst of one of the all-time greatest seasons by a relief pitcher.
Phillies left-hander Cliff Lee has been one of the most durable, successful, and all-around excellent pitchers in Major League Baseball for the past 4 seasons. He’s got one Cy Young Award on his mantle, and can boast about 2 other top-5 finishes. But the 2012 season just hasn’t gone the way he expected it to. Lee has slipped a little bit this year, seeing his ERA rise from 2.40 (161 ERA+) a year ago all the way up to 3.83 (107 ERA+) this season. As you would expect, as his ERA and ERA+ dropped from elite a year ago to slightly above average this season, so it makes logical sense that his win total would drop as well. But for Cliff Lee to be the proud owner of a meager 2 wins is a little absurd, especially when you consider the fact that he has lasted fewer than 6 innings in just 1 of his 21 starts, while posting a quality start 60% of the time in general. Both numbers would lead you to believe that Lee had a record around the .500 mark, maybe a little better if he was lucky and his offense scored a lot when he pitched, and maybe a little worse if he was undone by poor defense or little run support. But Cliff Lee hasn’t just had bad luck, he’s having a historically bad run of luck, equivalent to a black jack player watching the dealer turn over 21 after 21 until the player is forced to walk away.
Earlier today I discussed the hottest team in baseball, the New York Yankees, and now I want to take a look at a franchise currently mired in the worst slump, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies have gone 3-12 over their past 15 games, a ghastly run of poor play from the team with the 2nd highest payroll in baseball.
Their slump has directly coincided with the loss of Roy Halladay, who was placed on the DL on May 28th for shoulder soreness, and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. The good news is that he is already throwing and is ahead of schedule on recovery, which means a return in 5-6 weeks now looks likely, barring a setback. But even if Halladay can return ahead of schedule, do the last place Phillies, now 9 back of Washington in the NL East and 5 games out of a Wild Card spot, realistically have a chance to make the playoffs?
The 2012 season is well underway and it hasn’t gone so well for a few of the franchises that were expected to compete for playoff spots. Boston, the Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia, Arizona and Milwaukee have all struggled mightily so far. With at least 130 games remaining for all of these teams, there is plenty of time to turn it around. The real question is: can any of these teams do it? And who’s the most likely? Let’s take a look:
Arizona is reeling right now, losing 5 straight games to fall to 14-18, 6.5 games behind the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks aren’t at full strength right now, with Chris Young out, Justin Upton dealing with an ailing wrist, and Stephen Drew on the DL. Many of their issues can be related to injuries, because no team can survive losing 3 of their 5 most valuable position players. There are some other issues surfacing in Arizona however, and the Diamondbacks will have to get those corrected in order to get back above .500.
The biggest issue the D-backs have this season is a propensity to strikeout at the plate. Arizona has struck out more than any other team in baseball. The offense has plenty of power hitters, but teams that strikeout so often struggle to bring runs in, because they have so many unproductive outs in the lineup. Two seasons ago this was Arizona’s biggest issue causing a last place finish. Their improvement from worst-to-first was directly tied to making more contact at the plate. They rank just outside the top-10 offenses in baseball, and if they can cut their strikeouts and get their players back they will start scoring more runs.
Another big issue has been the pitching staff’s propensity to give up the longball. The Diamondbacks allow the most homeruns in the National League, and the Cardinals took full advantage over the last 3 games, pummeling 7 dingers in 3 games. Josh Collmenter has just been firebombed in his 21 innings allowing 6 homers and his replacement, Daniel Hudson, has been just as bad, allowing 5 in 18 innings. The Diamondbacks have a bevy of young starting pitching, Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer, just waiting for an opportunity and it would benefit Arizona to turn to them sooner rather than later.
I think the Diamondbacks have a very good chance of turning things around. They started slow a year ago, before having a great 2nd half, and once Arizona gets healthy I expect the same thing to happen again. Look for the Diamondbacks to compete with the Dodgers for divisional supremacy in the NL West.
The Red Sox entire pitching staff has been a complete disaster through the first 30 games of the season. The Boston offense ranks highly in most of the important offensive categories and they are averaging 5.4 runs per game, ranking 4th in baseball. Even with the injuries to Ellsbury, Crawford, and Youkilis the offense has continued to roll like a well-oiled machine. But just like a year ago, the pitching staff is betraying Boston’s hopes from top to bottom, leading to a troubling 12-18 start.
Only 2 pitchers out of the 10 most used on the team have an ERA under 4.20. And the only 2 are relievers Scott Atchison and Matt Albers, who have thrown a combined 34.2 innings. They give up home runs in bunches, allowing 39 so far, and only Kansas City and Cleveland have walked more hitters. No American League team has allowed more hits so far.
The biggest culprits are in the starting rotation. Clay Buchholz has been a disaster, posting a 9.09 ERA in 32.2 innings, while allowing a staggering 10 long balls. He has a WHIP above 2, which means that everyone is hitting what Buchholz is dealing. Josh Beckett has also been bad, giving up 7 homers in 32.1 innings and he may be headed to the DL.
We’ve already discussed the bullpen struggles of the Red Sox. While their performance has improved over the last couple of weeks, no one has appeared to be a shutdown reliever. Only closer Alfredo Aceves has an above average K/9 rate, so it’s no surprise the Sox relievers have been feasted on. This may be a transitional year in Fenway, with a new manager and front office just getting their feet wet. I don’t expect the Red Sox to make the playoffs because the division is just too tough. With upstarts Baltimore and Toronto joining the reigning division kings Tampa and New York, the AL East may be too crowded for the Red Sox this season.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Year 1 of the Albert Pujols era hasn’t quite gone as expected so far in Los Angeles. The artist formerly known as The Machine has yet to really do anything at all, batting .198/.235/.286. To put that in perspective think about this. Pujols has never had a season in which his batting average was as low as his slugging percentage currently is!!! He only has 1 homerun and 11 RBI, which is 3rd on the Angels roster, and his normally excellent base running has been anything but. He was caught again being too aggressive on the base paths by the Twins, the 5th time this season.
The Angels have plenty of struggles in the non-Pujols division as well, which is why they rank 3rd to last in the American Leauge in runs scored. Angels catchers have hit a combined .204 this season, with most of the at-bats being given to Chris Iannetta, who’s batting .197. Newly extended shortstop Erick Aybar is hitting .211 with no pop, only 4 extra-base hits in 109 at-bats. And we already covered their outfield situation, which has been somewhat remedied by removing Bobby Abreu.
The pitching staff is still excellent and has performed the way it was expected. Jered Weaver is making an early case for the Cy Young, going 5-0 in 50.2 innings, with 47 strikeouts, only 9 walks, 2 homers allowed, a WHIP of .789, and a no-hitter. The bullpen seems to be sorting itself out as well, with Mike Scioscia giving the higher leverage innings to his best relievers.
This team has plenty potential and has been playing better recently, winning 4 of there last 5. If Albert Pujols gets the offense back to the middle of the pack in the American League, the Angels pitching could navigate them back into the playoff chase. The AL West has only one real contender so far this season, and Los Angeles should be able to make that two by midsummer.
The Brewers have been in a real funk recently, dropping 6 of their last 8 games to fall into last place in the NL Central at 13-18. Injuries have decimated the infield, with shortstop Alex Gonzalez and 1st baseman Mat Gamel out for the year. Outside of Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, who’s quickly becoming one of the best catchers in the National League, the rest of the offense has struggled. Nyjer Morgan has been almost unplayable hitting .192 with no extra-base hits in 73 at-bats. Rickie Weeks is hitting .164 with a boatload of strikeouts. Corey Hart is piling up the extra-base hits but that’s bout it, as he’s only hitting .231. Aramis Ramirez hasn’t been able to replace Prince Fielder’s production and the team has slipped to the middle of the NL in runs scored. And oh boy has the pitching been abysmal.
The Brewers rank 2nd to last in the NL in runs allowed giving up just about 5 runs a game. Zach Greinke has been excellent so far, striking out more than a batter per inning over the 43 he has thrown, while only allowing 1 homer and 10 walks. Shaun Marcum has also been solid, throwing for a 3.41 ERA with 8 strikeouts for every 9 innings. The rest of the rotation, Randy Wolf, Yovi Gallardo, and Chris Narveson have been hammered, all posting ERAs north of 5.00.
The bullpen, which was supposed to be a team strength, has been abysmal as well. John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez have struggled, allowing a total of 15 earned runs in 23 innings while walking 15. Axford will probably snap out of his funk, because he is striking out a ridiculous 15 batters per 9 innings, but Rodriguez’s struggles could be more telling. His velocity looks a couple of ticks slow, and he doesn’t seem to be engaged in the set-up role. It’s no secret he wants to be a closer again, but he took the money to stay in Milwaukee knowing this would be his role. He needs to start pitching better if he wants a shot at closing for someone next season. This team may not have the pieces this year to compete. As I mentioned yesterday, Ishikawa and Izturis just won’t get it done as everyday players at 1st and short. If Gallardo returns to normal, the rotation will be fine, and Milwaukee will have to hope that they can finish in the top-3 in the National League in runs allowed, because they aren’t going to be able to score enough to win too many 10-9 ball games. I don’t like Milwaukee’s chances too much, and they may have to wait for next year, when better health should arrive.
Much like Arizona and Milwaukee, the Phillies have been decimated by early injuries so far. Their best hitters, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have yet to play a single game, and the offense has suffered because of it. Philadelphia now ranks 19th in baseball in runs scored after a recent surge. Hunter Pence has been a handful for opposing pitchers, hitting 7 homers and 6 doubles while holding down the middle of the Philly lineup until Howard gets back. Juan Pierre and Carlos Ruiz have also stepped their games up, with each batting over .300. But the pitching hasn’t been as good as advertised and the bullpen has been awful, especially in this week’s sweep at the hands of the Mets.
The Phillies rank 11th in the National League in runs allowed so far, which is curious for a team that employs Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Jonathan Paplebon. While those 4 players have all been solid pitchers, rating well in ERA+, none have had their Cy Young caliber stuff so far. And the rest of the bullpen hasn’t helped matters, ranking as one of the worst in the National League. Kyle Kendrick has already been given 19.2 innings and has posted a 7.32 ERA. Jose Contreras, who has been solid for the past 2 seasons out of the bullpen, has an 8.59 ERA. And many of the lesser-used relievers have been worse.
Until the Phillies get back to full strength with Howard and Utley in the lineup, its difficult to say what this team’s ceiling is. The other teams in the National League East are much better this season, with usual bottom-feeders Washington and New York surging so far. The Phillies won’t be able to make the playoffs if Howard and Utley can’t come back in a timely fashion while providing their usual All-Star caliber performance. And the longer the season drags on without them, the longer Philadelphia’s playoff odds become.
Now that we’ve taken a look at the American League’s best, let’s take a look at the best the Senior Circuit has to offer.
Catcher- Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
Molina gets a slight edge over Buster Posey because he plays the position everyday, rather than playing half his games at 1st base. Molina has been excellent with the bat so far, hitting .316 with 4 homers and 15 RBI. He even has 2 stolen bases so far, half of his entire total from 2011. He has always been the finest of the catching Molina’s with his glove work, and now, in his age-29 season, the bat is starting to catch up.
1st base- Bryan LaHair, Chicago Cubs
LaHair has been given his 1st real shot in the big leagues at 29 and has not disappointed so far. In 20 games he has hit .390/.471/.780 with 5 homers and 14 RBI. Very few players are ever given their first crack at the Major Leagues at 29 and his early success has been one of baseball’s best stories so far. If LaHair could finish around .280 with 20+ homers, numbers that are very realistic, the Cubs will have gotten an absolute steal at 1st base.
Another surprise out of the NL Central has been the play of the Astros’ 2nd baseman. Altuve is very green at only 21 years of age, but has been smacking extra-base hits all over the field batting .360/.404/.547 with 11 XBH. The Astros have been surprisingly feisty so far, and Altuve is one of the major reasons why. His speed game is also excellent, having stolen 4 bases without being caught.
Shortstop- Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs
The 2nd Cub to grace the list, Castro is a singles hitting machine. He led the National League in hits a year ago, and is already back to his old tricks, piling up 30 hits already. He’s added some new moves as well, and has already stolen 10 bases, which puts him on pace to smash his previous career high of 22. Troy Tulowitzki is also playing well, but I’m giving the nod to Castro.
3rd base- David Wright, New York Mets
Wright gets the nod over Pablo Sandoval and David Freese at the National League’s deepest position. Wright leads all of baseball in on-base percentage, at a stellar .494, and is hitting a robust .389. He has been enjoying the moved in fences at Citi Field, bombing 3 homers already, putting him on pace to beat last season’s measly 14. He is also walking more than he is striking out, which is always an excellent sign that a hitter is really locked in at the plate.
Outfield- Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
Well, this one’s obvious. Kemp is leading everyone in everything, topping the National League in batting average, OPS, slugging, total bases, runs, hits, homeruns, and RBI. His defense in center has also been excellent, and his batting eye at the plate looks to be improved. He’s got an outside shot at hitting 60 homers, and a really long shot at hitting .400 for the season. This kind of production wins no-doubt-about-it MVPs.
Outside of Matt Kemp, there are plenty of deserving candidates, and Ryan Braun is my first. Braun had been having a somewhat slow start to his MVP defense until last nights 3 homer, 1 triple, 6 RBI outburst. He’s now all the way up to 3rd in OPS for National League outfielders, and also has 7 homers total. He’s also showing last seasons 33 steals weren’t a fluke, as Braun has swiped 3 bases in 4 attempts.
Outfield- Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
Gonzalez snaps up the last of the available outfield spots, because of his all-around play. He’s 6th out of NL outfielders in OPS, 13th in steals, 8th in homers, and 4th in RBI. His batting line: .303/.376/.539 with 4 homers, 4 steals, and 18 RBI. Other deserving candidates include: Andrew McCutchen, Michael Bourne, Carlos Beltran, Jay Bruce, and Chris Young, who was having a monster season before hitting the DL. If Young comes back and plays as well as he had been, the All-Star spot is his.
Right-handed Pitcher- Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
The ace of the best pitching staff in baseball so far has lived up to all the hype. Strasburg has pitched 5 games, compiling 32 innings and has struck out 34 while allowing 6 walks, 22 hits, and only 4 runs, giving him an ERA of 1.13. Hitters have looked overmatched against his powerful fastball and wipeout curveball. Strasburg is a legitimate Cy Young candidate if his team doesn’t shut him down first.
For as dominant as Strasburg has been from the right side, Kershaw has been nearly as dominant from the left. He has a 1.78 ERA in 30.1 innings and has already struck out 28 batters to begin his Cy Young defense. His WHIP sits under 1.00 once again and he has only allowed 1 homer so far, which was his biggest weakness a season ago. If Strasburg is shut down, look for Kershaw to reap the rewards.
Relief Pitcher- Jonathan Paplebon, Philadelphia Phillies
Without the excellent rotation put together in Philly, the team would already be sunk. They spend a fortune for Paplebon to close the door on teams, and he has gotten the job done so far this year. Paplebon is striking out 1 batter per innings, has a tidy .90 WHIP, and a miniscule .90 ERA as well.
The National League East enters 2012 as deepest in all of baseball. Aside from the Mets, all of the other 4 teams have a chance to make the playoffs or win the division. Philadelphia and Atlanta have already proven that they are good bets to win 90+ games, and with Miami’s spending spree and Washington’s youth movement each of these teams could jump to the 90-win plateau. Let’s take a look starting with the defending division champion Phillies first.
The Phillies had the finest regular season in the history of their franchise a year ago, winning 102 games. But the season ended on a crushing note, losing 1-0 in a fantastic Game 5 to the Cardinals in the NLDS, with the last out being made by Ryan Howard as he tore his Achilles. With the acquisition of Cliff Lee prior to the 2011 season the Phillies had a staff for the ages, allowing a paltry 529 runs, or 3.27 per game. The pitching will once again be excellent, but the offense may not measure up and the Phillies may struggle to score runs. Philadelphia is also the oldest team by average age in baseball at nearly 30, so their title window may only be open for a couple more seasons.
The trio of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels is returning again for 2012 and will probably be the best top-3 in league. A season ago each pitcher had an ERA under 3, a k’s/9innings rate of better than 8, and each finished in the top-5 in Cy Young award voting. Ideally for the Phillies, they will get another 30+ starts out of their 3-headed monster and pile up another 50-60 wins. Throw in Vance Worley, who at 23, went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and posted a near-elite strikeout rate. Joe Blanton, who is about league average, brings up the bottom of the rotation, which once again should lead the league in innings pitched as well as fewest runs allowed.
The bullpen got a pricey reinforcement this offseason in the form of Jonathan Paplebon. Paplebon posted an elite 12 k’s/9 innings a year ago, while cutting his walks by 60%, down to 10 total. He posted the 5th highest WAR for all relievers, according to Fangraphs, and gives more credence to the idea that the Phillies are in win-now mode.
The Phillies offense has been on a steady decline since winning back-to-back pennants in 2008-09. Last year they were 7th in the National League in scoring and 14th in baseball. While its possible to win the World Series with an average offense its unlikely as only 3 teams in the past 15 years have won a title with an offense ranked as low as Philadelphia’s. Early returns on the Philly offense aren’t looking to good either, with 3/4 of their infield struggling with injury problems.
Ryan Howard has been a major producer on the Phillies recent division winning teams. Howard has played at least 140 games every year since 2006 and in each of those seasons he has driven in at least 100 runs while hitting at least 30 homers. He’s finished in the top-10 in the MVP vote every year, winning in 2006, and will be sorely missed. He is probably looking at a June return, leaving Philly with 200 important at-bats to be filled by Ty Wigginton or Jim Thome. Neither player is an average hitter anymore and both are liabilities on defense. But each player is a good clubhouse influence who can hit a home run from time-to-time.
The Phillies will have to rely on their outfield, which could end up being one of the best in baseball. Led by do-it-all All-Stars Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, this unit plays solid defense while providing speed on the base paths as well as some pop at the plate. Pence hit for an OPS+ of 138 with 22 homers and 97 RBIs. Victorino had 27 doubles, 16 triples, and 17 homeruns while stealing 19 bases. Both players played excellent defense and provide a lot of range, taking away extra-base hits. Leftfield looks to be manned by John Mayberry Jr. who had 15 homers in 300 at-bats.
If Chase Utley can get back quickly, he the Phillies could score enough to win 95+ games. If Utley and Howard have any setbacks it could cost Philly greatly and they could become San Francisco East, a team with phenomenal pitching that is let down by its below average offense. Philadelphia will enter the season as favorites to win the division, but don’t let it surprise you if another team takes the crown.
The Atlanta Braves enter the 2012 season trying to rebound from one of the largest collapses in baseball history. The Braves seem to have the horses to recover, possessing pitching, pitching, and more pitching. 2012 will also be the swan song for franchise legend Chipper Jones. Chipper is a major league average player now so the Braves will need some of their young hitters to step up in 2012, particularly Jason Heyward. The fate of Atlanta’s season may very well hinge on if the big lefty can rebound.
Atlanta struggled to score for the most part last season finishing 22nd in baseball in runs scored. After finishing 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting in 2010, Heyward battled injury, posting a disappointing .227/.319/.389. Hitters with as much power, bat speed, batting eye, and ability like Heyward have the ability to win pennant races and MVPs. If he can stay healthy he is a good bet to rebound and hit an OPS+ around 140. The Braves also have last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up Freddie Freeman. Freeman has a bit of a strikeout problem but he hit .282/.346/.448 last year and hit 21 homers.
A couple more keys to the Braves’ lineup are Dan Uggla and Brian McCann. McCann has been the most consistent All-Star behind the plate in baseball, posting an OPS+ of 119 or greater each of the last 4 years. McCann has won 4 straight Silver Slugger awards and has hit over 20 homers in each season, and he is also a solid catcher behind the plate. Uggla had a terrible first half of the season posting a .185/.257/.365, until a fantastic 2nd half where he hit .296/.379/.569. He is also a big power threat for a 2nd baseman hitting 30+ homeruns each of the last 5 seasons.
The pitching staff throughout the organization is remarkably deep boasting 7 potential starters. Tim Hudson, age 36, is the senior pitcher on the staff, and he has posted an ERA+ above 115 each of the last 5 seasons. The rest is made up of young talents Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor.
Tommy Hanson is probably the most talented having posted a 3.28 ERA in 460 career innings. He’s a big 6’6” righty has a mid-90s fastball, a solid change-up, and a powerful 12-6 curveball. If he can stay healthy this season he could be a dark horse Cy Young candidate, and a potential 20 game winner.
The Braves should also boast a strong bullpen for the 2nd straight year. Craig Kimbrel led the National League in saves a season ago with 46 and posted a 181 ERA+ in 77 innings. He may have been overworked a season ago and he wore down at the end of the year, but he is an excellent closer. Set-up man Jonny Venters posted a 1.81 ERA and an elite strikeout rate as well. If the Braves take a lead into the 7th, they are a good bet to win the game.
For my full write-up on the Nationals click here.
New York Mets
The 2012 season will probably be a rough one for the New York Mets. The team has been trying to dump salary for the year and will probably continue to do so. The Mets still have quite a few highly paid players like David Wright, Jason Bay, and Johan Santana, all of whom could generate trade interest, especially if they rebound for solid seasons. The Mets outside of these few players are rather young, and some like Ike Davis has solid potential. In a division this tough the Mets will more than likely finish in the cellar and look to sell off any usable, higher-priced parts.
David Wright has steadily seen his value drop every year from 2008 onward. He bottomed out last season posting only a 2.6 offensive WAR, and he looked slow in the infield as well. If Wright can rebound and hit over .300 with 20-homer power he could generate a ton of interest on the trade market. 4-5 win players rarely come available and he could bring back quite a haul.
The offense outside of David Wright doesn’t look like it will be able to score too many runs. The Mets rated near the middle of the league a season ago. They could defy expectations if Jason Bay comes back strong and if Ike Davis can come back healthy. Davis showed some promise in his rookie year of 2010 hitting 19 homers and driving in over 70 runs. He had a strong start to last season hitting over .300 in 36 games before succumbing to injury. If he can reprise that 30-game stretch the Mets could have a potent offense.
The pitching staff was a disappointment a season ago finishing 22nd in baseball in runs allowed. The rotation and bullpen do not look very strong again this season and it would not be surprising to see the Mets finish in the bottom-10 again. Johan Santana, once one of the most feared pitchers in the game, is once again attempting to come back from injury. Santana didn’t pitch at all last season and at age 33 he may struggle to reprise his Cy Young form. Young pitchers Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese look like solid mid-rotation starters but in a tough division they may struggle again.
The Mets bullpen was a team weakness last year and has been somewhat rebuilt for 2012. Frank Francisco has been brought in to close and Jon Rauch has been imported to be the set-up man. The rest of the bullpen will probably struggle and no lead will truly be save for New York this year.
This team will probably struggle in 2012 and will more than likely finish in 5th in a tough division. Ideally for the Mets they will be able to get strong first halfs out of David Wright and Jason Bay in order to flip both players to contenders for elite level prospects, as they did in 2011 when they netted highly touted Zach Wheeler from San Francisco.
For my full write-up on the Marlins click here
New York Mets
NL East MVP: Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
NL East Cy Young: Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
I think that this is the year Atlanta finally puts it all together and takes the division. If they have injury problems like they did a season ago with Hanson and Jurrjens, the Braves have depth in Arodys Vizcaino, and Mike Minor. They also have a supurb bullpen and if Freddy Gonzalez has learned a lesson from last year he won’t overwork Kimbrel and Venters. The Phillies have an absurd amount of pitching depth, which should carry them to the playoffs. The offense will probably underwhelm so expect a drop-off from the 102 wins of a season ago. I think Miami and Washington will be two of the 4-5 teams competing for the second Wild Card, with Miami winning it. Picking playoff teams from this division is a grab bag, with so many excellent ball clubs, and the division race should be an excellent one.